The Panel (Comic)This is a comic version of The Panel. If you are not using dark mode for this blog, click the "sun" icon at the top of the page (to the left of the "write" button) and switch to dark mode for the comiMay 3, 2026
Three Predictions on Iran: What Perspectives Got Right, Got Wrong, and Couldn't See ComingOn January 28, 2026, we ran three related predictions through Perspectives, a multi-agent forecasting system that uses AI personas to debate the likelihood of future events. The questions were all focMar 1, 2026
Perspectives Development Update: Persona Sets & Prediction ModePerspectives previously used a fixed set of 8 philosophical personas for all debates. This created a mismatch between the analytical lens and the decision being made. Evaluating a feature prioritisation decision through Sociopath's strategic weakness...Jan 12, 2026
Perspectives Development Update: Interrogation of Blind ProposalsI've rebuilt how debates work in Perspectives. The system now runs structured interrogations of blind proposals rather than open-ended discussion threads. The change addresses fundamental problems with how debates generate useful analysis. The Proble...Jan 8, 2026
Perspectives Development Update: 2026 W1Perspectives has received three major updates: a new analysis report system, web search integration, and a redesigned interface. These changes address core limitations in how the system supports decision-making. Analysis Reports Replace Summary Secti...Jan 4, 2026
Building Realistic Simulations: A Research-Driven ApproachProcess simulations are only valuable if they're realistic. A simulation that looks impressive but doesn't capture how things actually work can lead to bad decisions and failed implementations. When we decided to create the first very realistic simul...Oct 31, 2025
